Sweden has expressed political support for Ukraine’s proposal to acquire between 100 and 150 JAS 39 Gripen E multirole fighters from Saab—a move that could reshape the aerial balance in Eastern Europe. While no formal contract has been signed, the endorsement signals a potential long-term strategic alignment between Stockholm and Kyiv in defense cooperation and aerospace capability development.
Strategic Context Behind the Gripen Proposal
Ukraine’s interest in the Swedish-built JAS 39 Gripen E stems from both operational necessity and strategic foresight. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has relied heavily on Soviet-era aircraft like MiG-29s and Su-27s. These platforms are increasingly unsustainable due to attrition, limited spare parts access, and obsolescence against modern threats such as advanced Russian SAM systems (e.g., S-400) and electronic warfare assets.
The introduction of Western fourth-generation-plus or fifth-generation fighters is seen as essential for maintaining air denial capabilities over contested zones and protecting critical infrastructure. While Ukraine is already set to receive a limited number of F-16s from Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands under U.S.-approved transfers starting late 2024 into 2025–26, Kyiv views this as insufficient for long-term force regeneration.
The Gripen E offers an attractive alternative or complement due to its:
- Short takeoff/landing capability (STOL), enabling dispersed operations from austere runways
- Advanced EW suite (Saab’s Arexis system), optimized for countering Russian radar threats
- Low operating cost compared to F-16 or Eurofighter Typhoon
- NATO interoperability with Link-16 datalink support
- Ease of maintenance with modular design suited for rapid turnaround
Swedish Government Position and Industrial Considerations
According to statements by Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson during a joint press event in Stockholm on October 15th (2025), Sweden “welcomes deeper defense-industrial collaboration with Ukraine” and sees “potential pathways” for supporting Ukrainian airpower modernization through Swedish platforms. While he stopped short of confirming any state-backed financing or export license issuance at this stage, Jonson emphasized that Sweden would not oppose a future sale if conditions permit.
This aligns with Sweden’s broader pivot toward NATO integration following its accession in early 2024. Supporting Ukrainian defense resilience against Russian aggression also serves Stockholm’s regional security interests—especially given increased Russian air activity over the Baltic Sea region.
From an industrial standpoint:
- Saab has capacity constraints but could scale production at its Linköping facility if backed by government funding or international consortium financing.
- The potential order—if realized—would mark the largest single export deal in Saab’s history (current largest being Brazil’s order for 36 Gripens).
- A co-production or assembly component inside Ukraine is reportedly under discussion as part of long-term industrial offsets.
Gripen E Capabilities Relevant to Ukrainian Needs
The JAS 39E variant represents a significant evolution over earlier C/D models. Key features include:
- AESA radar (Leonardo Raven ES-05) offering simultaneous air-to-air tracking and ground mapping modes
- An internal electronic warfare suite capable of jamming multiple threat emitters simultaneously using DRFM techniques
- A General Electric F414G engine providing supercruise capability (~Mach 1.2 without afterburner)
- Weapons compatibility including Meteor BVRAAMs (~200 km range), IRIS-T WVR missiles, GBU-series JDAMs, Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles (~500 km range)
- Integrated sensor fusion across radar/EO/IR/SIGINT inputs via Saab’s Wide Area Display cockpit architecture
This makes it well-suited for contested environments where survivability against layered IADS is critical. Its ability to operate from highways or damaged runways also aligns with Ukraine’s need for decentralized basing under persistent missile threat.
Status of Negotiations and Potential Roadblocks
No formal Letter of Request (LoR) or Foreign Military Sales (FMS)-style agreement has been announced yet between Kyiv and Stockholm/Saab. However:
- The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense confirmed exploratory talks are underway regarding financing mechanisms—possibly leveraging EU security assistance funds or Nordic-Baltic defense investment packages.
- NATO officials have reportedly been briefed on the concept as part of long-term force planning beyond immediate warfighting needs.
- The U.S., while focused on F-16 integration first, has not opposed parallel efforts involving other NATO-standard platforms like Gripen.
Main challenges include:
- Lack of immediate funding capacity within Ukraine without external grants or loans;
- The need for pilot retraining pipelines—Gripen simulators would have to be installed;
- Political sensitivities around technology transfer during wartime;
- The risk that large-scale procurement announcements may provoke escalatory responses from Russia;
Implications for European Airpower Balance and NATO Interoperability
If even part of the proposed acquisition materializes—say an initial tranche of two squadrons (~24 aircraft)—it would represent a major leap in Ukrainian combat aviation capabilities post-Soviet era. Over time, integration into NATO-standard C4ISR networks via Link-16/MIDS terminals would enhance joint operations with Polish F-35s/F-16s and Romanian Eurofighters/F-35As across Eastern Europe.
This could also:
- Create a new Eastern European aerospace hub centered around Ukrainian MRO facilities retrofitted for Western jets;
- Add pressure on other neutral countries like Austria or Switzerland to reassess their fighter fleets vis-à-vis regional security alignments;
- Catalyze further Nordic-Baltic military-industrial cooperation under EU/NATO umbrellas;
The symbolic value is equally potent—a transition away from Soviet legacy systems toward full Western integration not only militarily but industrially and technologically.
Conclusion: A Long-Term Vision Still Taking Shape
While still conceptual at this stage, Sweden’s public endorsement marks an important political signal that could accelerate feasibility studies around large-scale Gripen E adoption by Ukraine. The path forward will depend on funding frameworks, training timelines, production scalability at Saab—and above all—the trajectory of the war itself over coming years.
If realized even partially by late this decade (2028–2030), such a fleet would fundamentally transform Ukraine’s ability to control its skies—and send a powerful message about Europe’s commitment to resisting Russian revisionism through high-end military-technological partnerships.
