The global defense satellite communications (SATCOM) market is entering a new growth phase driven by rising geopolitical tensions, increasing battlefield digitization demands, and the rapid expansion of commercial space capabilities. According to a new report from research firm Euroconsult, commercial service revenues from military SATCOM are projected to exceed $8.6 billion annually by 2034—more than double the current figure.
LEO and Multi-Orbit Architectures Drive Demand
Historically dominated by geostationary (GEO) satellite systems operated by national militaries or government contractors (e.g., WGS constellation for the U.S.), the defense SATCOM landscape is rapidly shifting toward hybrid architectures that incorporate low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), and GEO assets.
This shift is largely driven by the operational advantages of LEO constellations—such as lower latency (~30–50 ms vs ~600 ms for GEO), higher throughput per terminal, and greater resilience through network redundancy. Commercial players like SpaceX (Starlink), OneWeb/Eutelsat, Amazon’s Project Kuiper, and Telesat are actively marketing their services for government use cases.
- Starlink: Already operational in Ukraine under civilian contracts; now offering Starshield—a military-focused variant with encrypted comms and dedicated capacity.
- OneWeb: Partnered with U.K. Ministry of Defence under Skynet program; offers interoperability with terrestrial tactical networks.
- Telesat Lightspeed: Targeting ISR backhaul and mobile command post applications with optical inter-satellite links (ISLs).
The U.S. Space Development Agency’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA)—which includes hundreds of LEO satellites for data relay—is another major driver of multi-orbit adoption in defense planning.
Commercial-Military Integration Accelerates
A key trend highlighted in Euroconsult’s report is the increasing reliance on commercial satellite operators to augment or even replace legacy military systems. This shift reflects both cost-efficiency pressures and urgent capacity needs in contested environments like Eastern Europe or the Indo-Pacific.
The U.S. Department of Defense has already launched several initiatives to formalize this integration:
- Commercial Augmentation Services: The U.S. Space Force’s Commercial Satellite Communications Office (CSCO) procures bandwidth from vendors like SES Government Solutions and Intelsat General.
- SATCOM as a Service: Subscription-based models allow rapid scaling without long procurement cycles—especially valuable for expeditionary forces or coalition operations.
- Link-16 over SATCOM: The Pentagon is pursuing beyond-line-of-sight tactical datalink capability via satellite relays—a key enabler for Joint All-Domain Command & Control (JADC2).
This trend extends beyond the United States. NATO has issued multiple calls for proposals under its Capability Package CP130D (“Satellite Communications Services”), while countries like Australia are investing heavily in sovereign-commercial hybrid networks such as JP9102.
Crisis Zones Highlight Operational Value
The war in Ukraine has served as a real-world case study on the operational utility—and vulnerabilities—of commercial SATCOM in high-threat environments. Ukrainian forces have relied extensively on Starlink terminals not only for strategic communications but also tactical-level coordination between FPV drone teams and artillery units.
This usage has revealed both strengths and limitations:
- Resilience: Rapid deployment of thousands of terminals enabled decentralized command structures even under kinetic attack on infrastructure.
- Cyber/EW Threats: Russian forces have attempted jamming/spoofing operations against Starlink signals; some success was reported using Tobol EW systems targeting uplinks/downlinks.
The lessons learned are influencing procurement strategies across NATO members who now prioritize anti-jam features, frequency diversity (X-/Ka-/Ku-band), beamforming capabilities, and mesh-networking resilience in future acquisitions.
Spectrum Management & Policy Challenges Loom
The surge in dual-use space assets raises complex questions about spectrum allocation, prioritization during conflict scenarios, and legal frameworks governing commercial-military interoperability—especially when services cross national borders or involve non-allied providers.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) plays a role here but lacks enforcement mechanisms during wartime conditions. Meanwhile, national regulators face pressure to harmonize licensing frameworks that accommodate both sovereign needs and agile private-sector deployments.
This legal uncertainty could become acute if adversaries target commercial satellites used for military purposes—blurring lines between civilian infrastructure and lawful targets under international humanitarian law (IHL). The recent French doctrine labeling certain cyberattacks on space assets as potential acts of war underscores this ambiguity.
SATCOM Modernization Programs Gain Momentum Globally
Nations across Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East are launching ambitious modernization programs to ensure secure access to next-generation SATCOM capabilities:
- UK Skynet-6: Includes new GEO satellites plus ground segment upgrades; Airbus leads prime contract with emphasis on modularity/interoperability with allies’ systems.
- Australia JP9102 Program: Lockheed Martin selected as prime; aims to deliver sovereign-controlled SATCOM architecture integrated with ADF C4ISR backbone by late 2020s.
- KSA Satcom Vision 2030: Saudi Arabia investing in dual-use platforms via Taqnia Space; seeks regional autonomy amid growing Gulf tensions.
The common thread across these programs is an emphasis on flexibility—supporting both fixed infrastructure nodes and mobile users operating in denied or degraded environments using compact phased-array terminals or airborne gateways like BACN-equipped UAVs/ISR aircraft.
MILSATCOM Industry Outlook Through 2034
The Euroconsult forecast projects that global defense-related spending on commercial satellite communication services will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 7% over the next decade—reaching more than $8.6 billion annually by 2034 compared to ~$3.7 billion today.
This growth will be fueled by several converging factors:
- Saturation/aging of legacy MILSAT fleets requiring augmentation
- Burgeoning demand from unmanned systems requiring high-throughput links
- Pace of innovation among private-sector operators outstripping government R&D cycles
MILSATCOM will increasingly become an ecosystem—not just a platform—with seamless switching between orbital layers (LEO/MEO/GEO/HEO), dynamic spectrum allocation via AI-driven network management tools, cyber-hardened modems supporting quantum-resistant encryption standards like PQC/NIST algorithms post-2025 rollout timelines.
Conclusion: Resilience Through Redundancy & Agility
The future of defense satellite communications lies not in monolithic platforms but agile architectures combining government-owned assets with commercial capacity across multiple orbital regimes. This approach enhances resilience against kinetic threats while enabling faster adaptation to evolving mission needs—from Arctic surveillance flights to urban drone swarms operating deep behind enemy lines.
Nations that embrace this hybrid model—and invest early in secure interoperability standards—will be best positioned to maintain information dominance across all domains through at least the mid-21st century battlefield environment where speed-to-link equals speed-to-decision—and ultimately mission success or failure.
